SI160: Long-Term Performance vs Short-Term Hot Streaks ft. Rob Carver
Top Traders Unplugged
How Do We Know Which System Is Better?
How on earth do we know which system is better when you strip all these differences away? How do investurs find out, or even have a clue as to the raw trend following approach? "It's an exercise in kind of potentiall mass of overfitting. To me, it's a little bit futile," he says.
Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the varying performances among CTAs during the notable market moves of the last few weeks, how to decide whether one system is better or worse than another, spread betting as part of a diversified portfolio, raising initial capital when starting a new firm, some thoughts on the US debt ceiling & its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin, and how to safely improve your system while still adhering to its rules.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Why returns dispersion among CTAs is higher than ever recently
- How to gauge a system's long-term effectiveness
- Spread betting in the UK as an alternative to futures
- How to raise AUM when starting a new firm
- The US debt ceiling and its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin
- Adding parameters to a system
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:11 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes03:03 - Macro recap from Niels
05:43 - Weekly review of returns
12:49 - How different types of CTAs have performed during the market moves of the last few weeks
21:14 - How to decide whether a system is better or worse than another system
26:11 - Q1; Matt: Has Rob ever considered using SpreadBetting to build a diversified portfolio instead of futures?
34:24 - Q2; Joel: How much investor money would you need if you were to start a firm today, and where would you find these investors?
38:23 - Thoughts on the US debt ceiling and the ‘platinum coin’ (check out this funny video by YouTube creator Remy)
46:58 - Rob’s new system adjustment which places constraints on positions based on leverage
55:56 - Some information on Rob Carver’s new book which is due to be released late 2022
59:36 - Benchmark performance update
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