Waiting for the Perfect Opportunity

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In this episode, Dave and Andrew welcome Tobias Carlisle—Principal and CIO at Acquirers Funds and co-host of the Value After Hours podcast—to discuss his book The Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu, and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking.

The conversation centers on one big theme: avoiding ruin. Tobias explains why “survive first” is the foundation of long-term compounding, how Buffett’s discipline shows up in what he doesn’t do, and why frameworks, selectivity, and understanding conditions matter as much as valuation math.

Key Topics Covered:

• Who Sun Tzu was (and why the text stands on its own)

• Defensive investing first: debt, fragile business models, and position sizing

• Wu-wei / effortless success and investing with tailwinds vs. headwinds

• Moral law, reputation, and why honesty matters in management

• Via negativa / inversion: avoiding dumb mistakes vs. trying to be brilliant

Timestamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:16 – Who Sun Tzu was

05:18 – Why The Art of War clicked in 2020

06:11 – Ergodicity: why avoiding ruin matters more than “winning”

12:41 – Seasons, cycles, and tailwinds

15:11 – Buffett’s discipline in COVID

21:21 – Munger’s influence

29:48 – Derivatives as “weapons of mass destruction”

32:15 – What Buffett doesn’t do

35:02 – Avoiding bad actors

38:15 – “Don’t go where you’ll die”

40:10 – Codifying management analysis

41:48 – Why small/value matters

46:12 – ZIG and DEEP

47:05 – Sign-off

Resources Mentioned:

The Value Spotlight Newsletter: https://einvestingforbeginners.com/value-spotlight-newsletter/

Acquirers Podcast (Spotify): https://open.spotify.com/show/4XKvjmFiZLxWZ58vBfT4v9?si=81f548cf76d94325

The Soldier of Fortune (book): https://a.co/d/ib7E08v

Acquirers Funds: https://acquirersfund.com/

Have questions or want your story featured? Email the show at newsletter@einvestingforbeginners.com or comment below. Your feedback shapes the podcast!

Remember, invest with a margin of safety—emphasis on the safety. Have a great week, and we’ll talk to you next time.

Timestamps are generated by artificial intelligence, and are not 100% accurate depending on the platform used for listening.

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