Is the Debt Ceiling a Wildcard?

I think if you get a rise in inflation, and I'm really looking at China here for this so far, I think it's not going to be enough to offset the supply chain related decline in inflation. So we are calling for a recession later this year. The debt ceiling is a huge wildcard. We're expecting it right now to be resolved before that drop-dead date, sometime in July or August. But you know, markets are less liquid. If this brinkmanship continues until the end, you could have an accident where we technically default. That's a huge risk for the market. It's not even clear what the trade is. You know, maybe you get spending cuts