2min chapter

Podzept from Deutsche Bank Research cover image

World Outlook 2023: The Looming Recession

Podzept from Deutsche Bank Research

CHAPTER

Is the ECB Under Tightening?

The ECB has hiked by 200 basis points already, and we have them hiking another 150 basis points by May. But reducing wage inflation to a sustainable rate requires a cyclical weakening of the labor market. The question ultimately is, will the ECB be able to do that once unemployment is rising? We have the ECB reaching the 3% terminal rate in Q2 before the real increase in unemployment occurs.

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