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Is the ECB Under Tightening?
The ECB has hiked by 200 basis points already, and we have them hiking another 150 basis points by May. But reducing wage inflation to a sustainable rate requires a cyclical weakening of the labor market. The question ultimately is, will the ECB be able to do that once unemployment is rising? We have the ECB reaching the 3% terminal rate in Q2 before the real increase in unemployment occurs.