Political Forecasting

In the presidential primaries of two tousand and eight, nate silver gave an upstart senator named borocco bama a much better chance than most everyone else did. Annate never made outright predictions but issued political forecasts like weather forecasts, with probabilities attached to them. In the general election he nailed not just the outcome, but the result in every state, plus the precise number of votes o bama received in the electoral college. He simply used polling data rather than his gut or some anecdote about some iowa farmer.