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SI240: Trend Following... More Than Just Vol Scaling? ft. Nick Baltas

Top Traders Unplugged

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The Predictability of Trend Following

The paper says there's no predictability, but because trend following is performing, it might be that assets have statistically strong positive or negative returns over the history. So all that we're actually doing is that we're over biasing our longer exposures by overbying assets that have historically performed and overselling assets that havehistorically underperformed. And I'm going to try to defend or potentially kind of suggest some of the points that I agree and disagree with.

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