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The Bayesian Statistics of the Nearest Star System
If the nearest star system has a planet just like Earth, probably Earth-like planets are common. And if we find life in our backyard, then we say, oh my gosh, the nearest planet,. planets to us, the moons of Jupiter, that's right there. That allows you to think maybe life is even more common than the most generous estimates we've ever given. We're folding in the likelihood of us now being two for two in terms of us going out."