Self-Improvement and Research Ethics (with Rob Wiblin)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
Navigating Prediction Markets and Political Biases
This chapter examines the dynamics between prediction markets and traditional financial markets, focusing on how political biases can distort pricing and predictions in high-stakes elections. It highlights the importance of statistical methods for assessing forecasts, using examples from past elections to illustrate the discrepancies between betting odds and polling data. The discussion promotes the value of expert-driven forecasting methods, particularly during critical events like the COVID-19 pandemic, while emphasizing the need for improved prediction skills.
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