Michael Mauboussin joins Andy and Kevin on this episode of the Value Perspective. Michael, a market strategist, professor and author, highlights techniques to help investors improve the quality of their decisions.
EPISODE NOTES:
1:09 Intro
2:37 What are the three most important tools an investor can have in decision making?
7:40 Tracking your decisions with precision
8:57 Do you think base rates are less usable than in the past due to mean regression?
11:44 How successfully have people integrated decision making tools into their process?
14:35 What should you capture in your 'decision journal'?
17:18 Updating your base theorems - how do balance the long and short term noise?
22:14 What does the ideal decision making environment look like?
27:20 Probabilistic thinking
31:14 What is risk?
35:09 How to overcome the fear of assigning numbers to risk
38:06 How to determine the difference between skill and luck?
44:41 The Santa Fe Institute approach
53:07 A bad decision being made over time
Book Recommendations:
Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World by David Epstein
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