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Is There Anything We Can Learn From Past Crisis?
In the 1970s, when there were these negative supply shocks, central banks and fiscal authority, instead of tightening monetary fiscal policy, wanted to maintain growth. That led to an inching of inflation expectation and led then eventually to high inflation, double-digit and recession. Now, central banks today say we learned the lessons of the 70s and we're going to do the right thing and fight inflation. But there are two problems. One is that fiscal authorities have large fiscal deficits that put more pressure on demand and fuel the inflation and inflation expectation. Eventually, central banks cannot essentially not to monetize this deficit, otherwise you'll have a debt crisis.