Shifts in Congressional Reapportionment and the Future of Competitive Districts

On this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck unpacks the growing unease in the GOP over RFK Jr.’s influence and Florida’s decision to drop school vaccine mandates, raising the question of how the once-fringe anti-vax movement went mainstream. Drawing historical parallels to the prohibition era, he examines how framing the issue as “personal freedom” and missteps like the COVID mandate fueled a cultural backlash that could take decades to undo, threatening long-term public health. The conversation then shifts to politics, with Trump maneuvering to dominate the NYC mayoral race—pressuring rivals, exploiting ranked-choice voting debates, and turning contests in New York and California into referendums on his influence, just as Democrats look to tie special elections back to Trump himself.

Then, Chuck is joined by Punchbowl News co-founders Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer to unpack the turmoil gripping Capitol Hill in the Trump 2.0 era. With Congress ceding power and lawmakers increasingly preoccupied with their own reelection campaigns, the leadership is under fire as redistricting battles in states like California and Texas threaten to tip the House majority. Democrats’ gamble on independent redistricting may backfire, institutionalists in the GOP have all but vanished, and even the Senate is starting to resemble the fractious House of a decade ago. The conversation also dives into whether John Cornyn can outmaneuver Ken Paxton, how redistricting uncertainty could push members into statewide races, and the looming prospect of a government shutdown with healthcare concessions as Democrats’ strongest bargaining chip.

Beyond the legislative fights, the episode explores high-stakes questions over tariffs, the White House’s pressure campaign against releasing Epstein files, and GOP senators’ unwillingness to challenge RFK Jr. 's controversial moves at HHS. With potential Senate retirements on the horizon and California’s referendum putting Democrats in survival mode, Sherman and Palmer argue that members of Congress are increasingly acting less like lawmakers and more like elected pundits. As Punchbowl becomes the “local paper” of Capitol Hill, this episode maps the fault lines shaping both parties—and the country’s future.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Introduction

02:30 Alarm over RFK growing in GOP congress, but don’t expect action

03:15 Florida dropping the vaccine mandate for kids in schools

06:30 How did the kooky anti-vax movement go mainstream?

07:00 Anti-vaxx movement has historical parallel in prohibition movement

08:30 Anti-alcohol movement seized on a particular moment in time

09:15 Anti-vaxx movement has been framed as a personal freedom issue

10:15 Biggest mistake by public health officials was the Covid vaccine mandate

11:30 Prohibition created crime & deaths from bootlegged alcohol

14:00 Officials know potential harm, and made the decision anyway

15:30 Older generation has memories of deaths from these diseases

16:45 It could take decades to reverse the damage to public health

18:30 Pro vaccine messaging needs to not be political

20:00 Trump trying to clear field in NYC mayoral to beat Mamdani

21:00 NYC voters should get ranked choice voting in general election

22:45 If Trump gets Adams to drop out, race will become all about Trump

24:00 NYC mayoral and CA redistricting could become Trump referendums

26:00 Democrats are making special elections all about Trump

29:15 Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer join the Chuck ToddCast 

31:15 Congress has ceded their power in Trump 2.0 

33:00 After Labor Day, lawmakers worry about reelection campaign 

34:00 Leadership is taking flak from members over redistricting 

34:45 California or Texas redistricting could swing majority 

35:30 Redistricting creating massive uncertainty for lawmakers 

37:00 Democrats backed independent redistricting and it hurt them 

37:45 Are there any institutionalists left in the GOP? 

39:00 The Senate is starting to behave like the House 10 years ago 

40:45 Redistricting could cause members to run for statewide office 

42:45 Is John Cornyn playing for time to prove he can beat Ken Paxton? 

44:00 Cornyn closing gap with Paxton, but still well behind 

46:15 Democrats have no incentive to cut deal, avoid government shutdown 

47:30 White House and Congress have different targets for CR 

48:30 Hidden perils for Dems if they shut down government 

50:15 Healthcare is the best concession Democrats can extract 

52:00 If Democrats shut down the government, how do they get out of it? 

53:00 Trump will make a shutdown painful for Democrats 

53:45 Dems in the minority have never caused a shutdown 

55:45 If Newsom loses the referendum, how will it affect congress? 

57:15 Polling shows referendum barely above 50% 

58:30 California's system has been good to Republicans 

59:30 If Newsom loses, the party goes into survival mode 

1:02:45 If courts stop tariffs, would Congress vote authority to Trump? 

1:04:45 House might capitulate on tariffs, the senate won't 

1:06:00 Any chance Schumer and Jeffries meet with Trump? 

1:07:45 Trump likely has the votes to prevent Epstein release 

1:09:15 Epstein files caused rules committee to freeze congress 

1:10:30 White House is pressuring/whipping members against file release 

1:12:30 Where are GOP senators on RFK Jr's actions at HHS? 

1:13:45 GOP senators are afraid to exercise any leverage 

1:15:00 Is Russia/Putin the only line that would divide Republicans? 

1:16:15 Will there be any more GOP senate retirements? 

1:18:15 Plans for Punchbowl news? 

1:20:45 Members of congress have become elected Trump pundits on TV 

1:23:00 Punchbowl has become the local paper for capitol hill

1:25:00 Ask Chuck 

1:25:30 Are Dems just living in "the world as it is" when it comes to redistricting? 

1:31:15 Are Trump's attacks on mail-in voting an effort to contest 2026 results? 

1:35:45 Is there a line where Democrats fighting will be the "wrong" move? 

1:41:45 Why is Lisa Cook being targeted for mortgage fraud when Trump did it? 

1:47:30 How long would it take the DNC to find viable candidates in light red districts? 

1:51:00 Could Texas/CA gerrymander backfire and put more safe seats in play?