The 90-day pause of tariffs on most countries and exemption of key tech imports suggest the U.S. administration is taking some account of financial risks and costs as well as a country’s willingness to engage. It shows there are factors that could put a check on the administration’s maximal tariff stance. As a result, late last week we extended our tactical horizon back to six to 12 months to dial up risk. Yet we still think tariffs can hurt growth and lift inflation, and major uncertainty remains.

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