“AI #149: 3” by Zvi
LessWrong (30+ Karma)
Timeline Speculation: When High-Weirdness May Arrive
Zvi reviews AI Futures projections and modestly pushes his high-risk median timeline toward 2030.
The Rationalist Project was our last best hope that we might not try to build it.
It failed.
But in the year of the Coding Agent, it became something greater: our last, best hope – for everyone not dying.
This is what 2026 looks like. The place is Lighthaven.
Table of Contents
- Language Models Offer Mundane Utility. 2026 is an age of wonders.
- Claude Code. The age of humans writing code may be coming to an end.
- Language Models Don’t Offer Mundane Utility. Your dog's dead, Jimmy.
- Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon. Keep your nonsense simple.
- Fun With Media Generation. YouTube facing less AI slop than I’d expect.
- You Drive Me Crazy. Another lawsuit against OpenAI. This one is a murder.
- They Took Our Jobs. Yet another round of ‘oh but comparative advantage.’
- Doctor Doctor. Yes a lot of people still want a human doctor, on principle.
- Jevons Paradox Strikes Again. It holds until it doesn’t.
- Unprompted Attention. Concepts, not prompts.
- The Art of the Jailbreak. Love, Pliny.
- Get Involved. CAISI wants an intern, OpenAI hiring a head of preparedness.
- Introducing. [...]
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Outline:
(00:30) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility
(01:34) Claude Code
(08:49) Language Models Don't Offer Mundane Utility
(10:04) Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon
(12:17) Fun With Media Generation
(12:47) You Drive Me Crazy
(13:39) They Took Our Jobs
(17:46) Doctor Doctor
(18:46) Jevons Paradox Strikes Again
(20:52) Unprompted Attention
(22:42) The Art of the Jailbreak
(23:22) Get Involved
(24:09) Introducing
(24:30) In Other AI News
(25:56) Show Me the Money
(26:14) Quiet Speculations
(29:38) People Really Do Not Like AI
(32:23) Americans Remain Optimistic About AI?
(33:40) Thank You, Next
(36:36) The Quest for Sane Regulations
(39:42) Chip City
(42:54) Rhetorical Innovation
(43:29) Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult
(44:25) People Are Worried About AI Killing Everyone
(44:45) The Lighter Side
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First published:
January 1st, 2026
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qp7kEfd2MnGRR8evZ/ai-149-3
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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