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The Importance of Predictability in Arms Control
I worry about the NPT because I don't think it's lost on anybody that after the collapse of the Soviet Union Ukraine had nuclear weapons and they didn't really have the ability to sustain them or operate them. The rate at which nuclear arms states are invaded is really quite low so this makes me worry about the future for the NPT. Over the medium term everybody's better off with a nice predictable arms control regulated nuclear arms regime within the context of a stable liberal rules based international order. Anyone who's ever bet over the medium to long term against Yankee ingenuity has made a really bad bet but there's some optimism there too.