GoodFellows: Conversations from the Hoover Institution cover image

Ameri-Can or Can’t?: China’s Looming Demographic and Economic Collapse

GoodFellows: Conversations from the Hoover Institution

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How Does It Look for China?

The population of the united states is growing at a much slower rate than we've been accustomed to historically. Legal emigration has basically seized up. The medium projection, theyi're a kind of base case now, is that the population of china will fall by forty six% between now and the end of the century. That assumes that fertility recovers from its currently very low rate. In practice, chinese couples are basically having one child. If that doesn't change, then the population ofchina could decline by two thirds, by 65%. And in that sense, the us. and China are on very different demographic paths.

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