It is busy time, to say the least, for Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO. Today’s markets are grappling with vast uncertainties…in US fiscal policy, in Fed independence and leadership, in geopolitics, and in global trade. Libby is charged with helping both the clients and risk-takers of PIMCO better understand the implications of policy that is changing rapidly.
Through her conversations with institutional, retail, and international clients, she outlines how uncertainty around US policy has become a central driver of investor concern early in 2026. Our discussion highlights how recent geopolitical developments — including tensions with Europe, rhetoric around Greenland, and renewed trade disputes — have amplified questions around US credibility and global leadership.
Throughout the conversation, Libby frames the current environment as one in which policy volatility, rather than policy outcomes alone, is shaping investor behavior. Tariffs, fiscal deficits, and election-driven incentives have created a backdrop where markets must continuously reassess tail risks.
We explore the challenge of reigning in US entitlements. Here, she describes two potential forcing mechanisms: bond market pressure or looming entitlement shortfalls. While the so-called bond vigilantes have periodically re-emerged, she notes that market selloffs have thus far been contained, suggesting that investors continue to grant the U.S. substantial runway. At the same time, projected shortfalls in the Trust Fund later this decade represent a political and economic inflection point that may eventually compel action.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Libby Cantrill.
