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Economists See Increasing Risk of Recession and Stagflation

The Breakdown

00:00

Inflation in the Real World

There have been huge exogenous supply shocks, first in terms of covid. The war in ukraine has the double factor of disruptions based on the field of battle. On the demand side, you had big increase in consumer demand coming out of covid shutdowns. We now assign roughly 15 % odds to a recession in the next 12 months and 35 % within the next 24 months.

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