The Australian Open Prediction

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A 2011 paper by Simmons Nelson and Simonson called False Positive Psychology shows how absurd conclusions can come from seemingly well-built studies. The basic idea here is experiments generate a lot of data, but if you only publish the patterns that are interesting to you, you can get these results. What it looks like in the real scientist lab is not nearly as malicious or intentional or extreme.

A decade ago, psychologists realized much of their science was fatally flawed, calling untold numbers of studies into question. Now, some young psychologists are trying to rebuild the foundations of their field. Can they succeed?

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