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Solar and Wind Are Well Up on That Curve, Right?
All four of these technologies have very steady expedential improvement curves. Now we know at some point they have to start rolling off of them, and that's where the debate omes. So as far as i can tell, what you're saying is, for the next 20 years, all four are going to be on that up swing. None of them are going to hit the levelling off. Not quite. Solar and wind are well up on that curve. And if you just extrapolate the expedential curve for solar and wind, they become dominant in less than a decade. But rolls off slowly in the fast transition. Rolls off more precipitously in the slow transition. It comes