3min chapter

The Rational Reminder Podcast cover image

Where do Stock Returns Come From? (EP.140)

The Rational Reminder Podcast

CHAPTER

The Effect of Spread Staying Where They Are on the Value Premium

Cliff says that there are three things that can happen going forward. There's the value spread continuing to widen to infinity and growth beats value forever. Spread stay where they are now and the value premium going forward resembles the historical regression intercept on valuation changes which is maybe two or 3% from 1950 to 2020. And then the third possible outcome, French papers on convergence spreads narrow as they've tended to doHistoric data shows you don't need a big improvement in type or converge to have a value premium. So who knows what's gonna happen in the future? It remains to be seen.

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