Forecasting consumption versus bookings

In this special episode of Run the Numbers, CJ Gustafson records live from Campfire’s AI Finance Forward conference in San Francisco, serving up a trio of rapid-fire interviews with top-tier finance leaders. First, Daniel Kang, CFO of Mercury, breaks down the quality of fintech revenue streams, the mechanics of float in a falling rate environment, and what investors really value. Then, Brad Floering, SVP of Finance at Snowflake, shares war stories on usage-based pricing, forecasting consumption, and the role of AI in modern FP&A. Finally, Mitzi Yue of Boulder Care brings a mission-driven perspective, reflecting on dual roles in finance and culture, career product-market fit, and the ethical frontier of AI in healthcare. It’s a fast, thoughtful taste of where modern finance is headed.

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LINKS:

Daniel Kang on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dmkang/

Mercury: https://mercury.com/

Brad Floering on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brad-floering/

Snowflake: https://www.snowflake.com/

Mitzi Yue on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mitziyue/

Boulder Care: https://www.boulder.care/

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Preview and Intro

00:04:03 Sponsors – Fidelity Private Shares, Metronome, Mercury

00:06:49 Guest – Daniel Kang (Mercury) joins

00:07:55 Lessons from being first finance hire

00:10:49 Finance collaborating on product decisions

00:13:12 Comparing customer segments and revenue models

00:16:58 Sponsors – Right Rev, Tipalti, Aleph

00:21:11 Market shift for consumer fintech models

00:23:14 Balancing gross profit with product growth

00:24:41 Misconceptions about fintech revenue

00:26:57 Guest – Brad Floering (Snowflake) joins

00:30:22 Aligning pricing with cloud resource consumption

00:33:17 Forecasting challenges with usage-based revenue

00:35:06 Complexity of sales commissions under consumption model

00:38:23 Lessons from AWS: committing for discounts

00:41:16 Cold start forecasting challenges and the role of employee size

00:44:01 Customer behavior and rollover credit challenges

00:47:08 Using professional services to recover unused credits

00:49:05 Seasonality and forecasting challenges in Q4

00:54:16 Guest – Mitzi Yue (Boulder Care) joins

00:57:05 The pandemic’s impact on telemedicine adoption

01:00:33 Finance decisions with human consequences in healthcare

01:02:26 Finding personal product-market fit in Series B/C stage

01:03:33 Finance as the central nervous system of the company

01:07:10 Nonprofits inspired by personal values and experience

01:10:52 Exploring AI’s potential in healthcare and finance

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SPONSORS:

Fidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off.

Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com

Mercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.com

RightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo.

Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more.

Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run

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#RunTheNumbersPodcast #FintechStrategy #UsageBasedPricing #HealthcareFinance #AIinFinance

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com