Seven: Prof Tetlock on why accurate forecasting matters for everything, and how you can do it better
Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours
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Is There a Scale of the Enterprise?
To get a large enough sample fo ye to figure out how accurately people can assess kind of factural outcomeso how well theycan do the cmparison, i guess you have to have hundreds of people playing civilization five for many years. The research sponsor, arpa is not quite that patient. I think they would like to see a steeper rising learning curve and probably a smaller number of participants generating the learning. We need people really good at playing sive five, who have a strategic save, but also people who are aware that strategic savy doesn't readily translate into forecasting skill. But i don't think we've reached the optimal performance frontier by any means. And if people would
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