The Importance of Space Travel

I think this depends a lot on what my credence was that it would be safe to go to the moon. You know that would be a lot of fun, right? Just for a touristy mission, not for a one way trip. There's a certain fraction of the time when you have a disaster and people die  and that fraction is uncomfortably large. If I thought that the chance of a fatal accident was 10 to the minus 4, then I would go. But if I thought it was ten to the minus 1, then I wouldn't. Somewhere in between it would be a difficult decision.