045: Jack Litle – Global Macro Trading, the Nature of Probability, and When to Place ‘Big Bets’
Chat With Traders
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How to Trade as a Game of Expectation
"We don't believe in prediction we think prediction is kind of silly and the purpose of being in markets is not to predict anything it is simply to assess odds and probabilities" "If you ran that scenario a thousand times you would make money on it," he says. 'You never have perfect information and you never actually know what's going to happen next unless you're cheating' He concludes with an analogy for this at the poker table: "In poker you'll have a certain situation where you can use the information from how your opponent is acted."
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