Understanding the Disconnect: Consumer Sentiment vs. Economic Data

Have you ever wondered how vibes can shape the economy? Or how the economy differs from financial markets? Or even how meme stocks operate? In this episode, we dive into the intersection of economic theory, social media, and public sentiment with Kyla Scanlon, an insightful economic commentator known for her relatable approach to explaining complex economic concepts. Kyla is a prolific content creator and founder of the financial education company, Bread. She produces a weekly newsletter, informative YouTube videos, the Let’s Appreciate Podcast, and (almost) daily short-form videos that break down complex economic concepts into engaging, bite-sized content. She’s also the author of In This Economy?: How Money & Markets Really Work, an indispensable guide to the “mad math and terrible terminology” of economics. Join us as we explore her unique vibecession concept, discuss the impact of social media-driven market movements, examine the housing crisis through the lens of generational wealth transfer and zoning laws, and much more. As Kyla explains it, economics isn't just about numbers. It’s about the stories we tell and how they influence the world around us. For a fun, fascinating, and highly accessible look at the state of the economy today, don’t miss this conversation with one of the internet’s favorite financial educators!

Key Points From This Episode:

(0:03:19) Kyla’s definition of economics, who the main players are, and how it's understood.

(0:05:04) How "vibes" influence the economy and intersect with economic theory and reality.

(0:07:07) Money, its impact on the economy, and whether GDP reflects economic health.

(0:09:45) Ways that expectations about inflation affect vibes in the economy.

(0:10:50) Kyla’s take on housing, what people get wrong about it, and renting versus owning.

(0:15:16) Surprisingly simple reasons for the housing crisis in the US and beyond.

(0:17:48) Key distinctions between financial markets, the economy, and the stock market.

(0:20:53) The difference between investing, speculating, and gambling.

(0:22:08) GameStop, meme stocks, and the power of social media.

(0:24:43) Reasons that “new era” thinking is dangerous and where crypto went wrong.

(0:29:49) How to know when we’re in a recession and what a “vibecession” is.

(0:33:52) Why US national debt isn’t always bad and why the Federal Reserve exists.

(0:39:43) Problems that can arise from strictly adhering to economic beliefs.

(0:42:53) Ways that the economy is connected to the mental health of individuals.

(0:45:10) The impact of social media and media business models on vibes.

(0:48:45) Kyla’s biggest learnings from her work and how she defines success.

Links From Today’s Episode:

Meet with PWL Capital — https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ 

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/

Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/

Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/ 

Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/

Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP

Kyla Scanlon — https://kylascanlon.com/

In This Economy?: How Money & Markets Really Work — https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/737854/in-this-economy-by-kyla-scanlon/

Let’s Appreciate Podcast — https://open.spotify.com/show/6ziXCBAojpLDKtexx8bxds

TLDR Podcast — https://wealthsimple-tldr-podcast.simplecast.com/

Kyla Scanlon Newsletter — https://kyla.substack.com/

Kyla Scanlon on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/kylascanlon/

Kyla Scanlon on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/@KylaScanlon/

Kyla Scanlon on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/kylascan/

Kyla Scanlon on TikTok — https://www.tiktok.com/@kylascan

Kyla Scanlon on X — https://x.com/kylascan

‘The Vibecession: The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy’ — https://kyla.substack.com/p/the-vibecession-the-self-fulfilling

Federal Reserve DFA (Distributional Financial Accounts) Chart — https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/dfa/distribute/chart/

Federal Reserve SLOOS Report — https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos.htm

Michael Mauboussin — https://www.michaelmauboussin.com/

FedNow — https://www.frbservices.org/financial-services/fednow

National Bureau of Economic Research — https://www.nber.org/

Justin Wolfers on X — https://x.com/JustinWolfers

‘Why Gen Z is Rewriting the Rules of Work’ — https://www.fastcompany.com/90911399/kyla-scanlon-on-why-gen-z-is-redefining-the-concept-of-job-satisfaction

‘Loneliness as a "market opportunity”’ — https://youtu.be/UL9QiHYtajw

Journal of Economic Teaching Symposium on Economics Teaching (JETSET) — https://journalofeconomicsteaching.org/symposium/

Kyla’s Tweet about #JETSET24 — https://x.com/kylascan/status/1820242645672738938

Books From Today’s Episode:

The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing — https://www.amazon.com/dp/1422184234 

Papers From Today’s Episode: 

‘Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)’ — https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/why-do-we-think-that-inflation-expectations-matter-for-Inflation-and-should-we.htm

‘Negativity drives online news consumption’ — https://www.researchgate.net/publication/369301406_Negativity_drives_online_news_consumption