The Confirmation Bias

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Most people have trouble keeping those things separate. So when you say that it's hard to distinguish a skill from luck, they do tend to leap to the conclusion therefore, all thing, all success, is lucky - which is not your view. If we say, old tigers ore killers and old killers are tigers, are ight? The difference is not a big deal. O to get by, right in a complex environment, that fallacy can multiply your ods by 20 thousand. Arit soor ous make the mistake. Most people, if i tell you that all erer er discoveries came from luck, t doesn't mean that luck will all luck will produce discoveries. But i

Nassim Taleb talks about the challenges of coping with uncertainty, predicting events, and understanding history. This wide-ranging conversation looks at investment, health, history and other areas where data play a key role. Taleb, the author of Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan, imagines two countries, Mediocristan and Extremistan where the ability to understand the past and predict the future is radically different. Taleb's contention is that we often bring our intuition from Mediocristan for the events of Extremistan, leading us to error. The result is a tendency to be blind-sided by the unexpected.