Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Black Swans
EconTalk
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The Confirmation Bias
Most people have trouble keeping those things separate. So when you say that it's hard to distinguish a skill from luck, they do tend to leap to the conclusion therefore, all thing, all success, is lucky - which is not your view. If we say, old tigers ore killers and old killers are tigers, are ight? The difference is not a big deal. O to get by, right in a complex environment, that fallacy can multiply your ods by 20 thousand. Arit soor ous make the mistake. Most people, if i tell you that all erer er discoveries came from luck, t doesn't mean that luck will all luck will produce discoveries. But i
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