Joe Carlsmith on How We Change Our Minds About AI Risk
Future of Life Institute Podcast
How to Update Your AI Progress in the Correct Way
If you are currently at very low odds on AI risk overall, then I think I want to urge attention to your predictions about how you will feel in the future conditional on various forms of AI progress. These sorts of updates don't even need to be kind of predictable in the sense of more likely than not. And so the thing I most wanna urge is sort of just like attention to these dynamics, attention to the ways in which what you expect to believe in the future should kind of be constraining what you believe now.
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