How to Avoid a Late Cycle Debt Cycle

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Ray Dalio said a period of deleveraging can occur when interest rate tools are no longer an option. In Japan in the 90s, the Bank of Japan cut interest rates from basically 5% all the way to zero and it kept interest rates there ever since. The Japanese private sector has refused to lever up even if interest rates dropped so aggressively. Why? Because the deleveraging of the 90s was so painful for them that there was no interest rate cheap enough that could convince them to take on additional debt. If the US can get inflation down to 2%, maybe with a recession, but without a massive deleveraging episode first, then yes, lowering interest rates at 0%

Rebecca Hotsko and Alfonso Peccatiello discuss the current market outlook, including the driving force behind the market rally, its sustainability, Alfonso’s prediction of a 0% rate cut by the Fed in 2024, and a whole lot more!

Alfonso Peccatiello is former Head of a $20 billion Investment Portfolio and now is the Founder and author of The Macro Compass, which is an investment strategy firm that provides financial education, macro insights and investment ideas.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00 - Intro.

02:05 - His current market outlook, whether this recent market rally is sustainable or not.

10:43 - Why Alfonso expects the Fed to cut rates to 0% in 2024?

22:07 - How the long-term debt cycle works, what are the key factors that drive it over time?

29:27 - Why Alfonso believes we are in the very late stages of the long term debt cycle?

33:41 - What implications does this has economically, and for the financial markets?

34:02 - Will we see a period of deleveraging similar to 2008 and 1929 in the US?

41:11 - The difference between a period of deleveraging and a recession.

50:22 - His thoughts on the trend of de-dollarization, is a US dollar centric world over and are there any possible alternatives to this dollar central world?

54:49 - The Impacts that an economic downturn and de-leveraging would have on a US dollar based global system.

60:09 - Alfonso’s portfolio strategy and investment take-aways given his outlook.

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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Related Episode: Listen to MI232: Understanding Quantitative Easing w/ Alfonso Peccatiello , or watch the video.

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