Unpredictability of Human Behavior and the Limitations of Forecasting

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The speakers explore the unpredictable nature of human behavior and draw parallels to the challenges of predicting suicide, mass public shooters, and societal events. They critique the overemphasis on aggregate data and highlight the importance of understanding individual motivations and events. Additionally, they discuss the limitations of forecasting in the stock market, elections, weather forecasts, and social change, emphasizing the need for transparency and incorporating different sources of information.

If you could rewind your life to the very beginning and then press play, would everything turn out the same? Or could making an accidental phone call or missing an exit off the highway change not just your life, but history itself? How did one couple’s vacation cause 100,000 people to die? Brian Klaas explores how our world really works, driven by strange interactions and apparently random events. Drawing on social science, chaos theory, history, evolutionary biology, and philosophy, he provides a fresh look at why things happen.

Brian Klaas is a professor of global politics at University College London. He is a regular contributor for The Washington Post and The Atlantic, host of the award-winning Power Corrupts podcast. His new book is Fluke: Chance, Chaos and Why Everything We Do Matters. You can find him at BrianPKlaas.com and on Twitter @brianklaas.