Analysis of Stock Market Trends and Performance

All eyes were on the Fed in the first half of 2024, but with core PCE holding steady and no rate cuts, how did the other parts of the economy and the markets fare? In this midyear episode, Schwab experts look ahead to the second half of 2024 to consider what investors might expect from the U.S. stock market, the global markets, and policy and politics in Washington D.C.

First, Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon discuss the current trends and bifurcations in the equity market. They highlight the significant spread between large-cap and small-cap performance, with the S&P 500® outperforming the Russell 2000. They also discuss the divergence within large-cap stocks, particularly in the growth trio of tech, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors. The conversation emphasizes the concentration of performance in a small number of major drivers, such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon. They also touch on the bifurcation between index-level gains and weaker member-level performance in the NASDAQ. The conversation concludes by noting the relationship between market bifurcations and broader economic trends.

Next, Liz Ann interviews Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab's chief global strategist. Their conversation covers the global economic outlook, China's market performance, central bank policy, geopolitical risk, election risks, and asset allocation. Jeff discusses the recovery in the global manufacturing sector, China's stock market performance, central bank rate cuts, geopolitical developments, and the importance of international diversification.

Finally, Kathy Jones interviews Mike Townsend, Schwab's managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs and the host of the WashingtonWisepodcast. They discuss the legislative agenda for the second half of the year, the upcoming presidential election, the regulatory agenda, and the battle for control of Congress. 

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

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Important Disclosures

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. 

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. 

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. 

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

Small cap investments are subject to greater volatility than those in other asset categories. 

International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.

Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and cannot protect against losses in a declining market.

Rebalancing does not protect against losses or guarantee that an investor’s goal will be met. Rebalancing may cause investors to incur transaction costs and, when a non-retirement account is rebalanced, taxable events may be created that may affect your tax liability.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

The information and content provided herein is general in nature and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended, and should not be construed, as a specific recommendation, individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Tax laws are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, individuals should contact their own professional tax and investment advisors or other professionals (CPA, Financial Planner, Investment Manager) to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based upon this information.

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The Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a survey-based indicator of the economic health of the global manufacturing sector. The PMI index includes the major indicators of: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

The MSCI EAFE Equal Weighted Index includes the same constituents as the MSCI EAFE Index (large and mid-cap securities from Developed Markets countries around the world excluding the US and Canada), with an alternative weighting scheme where at each quarterly rebalance date, all index constituents are weighted equally.

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