Important news: this will be Jack’s last episode as the host of Forward Guidance. He is transitioning to host a new podcast called Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters
Felix Jauvin, macro trader and current host of “On The Margin,” will be the new host of Forward Guidance going forward: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Richard Koo, senior adviser at CSIS, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, and pioneer of the “balance sheet recession” phenomenon, explains why he thinks China’s balance sheet recession has already begun.
Richard Koo’s latest book, “Pursued Economy: Understanding and Overcoming the Challenging New Realities for Advanced Economies”: https://www.amazon.com/Pursued-Economy-Understanding-Overcoming-Challenging/dp/1119984270
Richard Koo’s classic book, “The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession”: https://www.amazon.com/Holy-Grail-Macroeconomics-Lessons-Recession/dp/0470824948
__
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:08) What Is A Balance Sheet Recession?
(08:56) Balance Sheet Recession In Europe & U.S. After The Great Financial Crisis of 2008
(15:46) China's Balance Sheet Recession
(25:43) Savings And Bank Credit In China
(33:26) Permissionless Ad
(34:25) China's Trade Surplus
(38:20) China Likely Can't Export Its Way Out Of Its Balance Sheet Recession Because The Rest of the World Won't Let It
(45:33) The Currency Adjustment Mechanism To Correct Trade Imbalances Has Been Severely Impaired, Argues Koo
(01:01:58) Is The U.S. in a Balance Sheet Expansion?
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
