6min chapter

New Books in Mathematics cover image

Scott Gehlbach, "Formal Models of Domestic Politics" (Cambridge UP, 2021)

New Books in Mathematics

CHAPTER

The Effect of Social Unrest on Transition to Democracies

Autocracies authoritarian regimes are more likely to transition to democracies when there's more threat of social unrest. Any promise by the regime of greater transfers tomorrow so we've raised your pensions today and don't worry we'll raise your pensions again tomorrow is not credible if the de facto power of those who are in the streets today is transitory. The counterintuitive conclusion of the asylmokon Robinson model then is that democratization is less likely when there's a more frequent threat ofsocial unrest.

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