Who Will Win: Infrastructure and Workflows

According to the platform economist Sangeet Paul Choudary, author of Reshuffle, today’s AI hype is a feature rather than a bug in Silicon Valley. It’s a deliberate mechanism to attract capital in an “attention-poor, capital-heavy economy” while distracting from the lack of short-term business results. So who will ultimately win and who will lose in today’s AI arms race? While Choudary predicts power will concentrate around infrastructure players like Nvidia and enterprise workflow companies like Microsoft and Google, he warns that OpenAI risks becoming “the Cisco of this revolution” unless it moves beyond the commoditizing model layer. More troubling, for Choudary, is AI’s societal impact. We cannot trust Big Tech with our “agentic future,” he cautions—particularly as technologies like OpenAI’s Pulse preview eliminate the last vestige of user agency that we still possess. While pessimistic about US and Chinese models built on data hoarding and state-backed monopolies, the Dubai-based Choudary sees promise in India’s stack experiment, where digital public infrastructure allows users to own their data and get paid when AI trains on it.

1. The Algorithm Creates a New Class Divide The critical inequality today isn’t traditional capital vs. labor—it’s between those who work “above the algorithm” (designing systems, like Uber data scientists) and those working “below it” (controlled by systems, like Uber drivers whose rates and job access are algorithmically determined).

2. AI Hype is a Feature, Not a Bug In an attention-poor, capital-heavy economy, hype serves as a mechanism to attract investment. Companies selling distant AGI narratives and engaging in circular deals (OpenAI-Nvidia-Microsoft-Oracle) are propping up valuations while actual business results remain uncertain. A market correction is “long overdue.”

3. Power Will Concentrate at Two Layers of the AI Stack Winners will emerge at the infrastructure level (Nvidia for chips/inference) and the customer workflow level (likely Google or Microsoft with their enterprise relationships). The middle layer—the model itself—is already commoditizing. OpenAI risks becoming “the Cisco of this revolution” unless it successfully moves up to the workflow layer.

4. We Can’t Trust Big Tech with Our “Agentic Future” Today we still have agency to click, even if our attention is manipulated. But as AI agents make decisions for us (like OpenAI’s Pulse preview), we surrender that agency entirely, enabling even more extraction. Current business models are built on data hoarding—adding agent technology on top eliminates user agency completely.

5. Four Distinct Geopolitical AI Models Are Emerging The US favors private enterprise (increasingly intertwined with government), China lets innovation happen then absorbs it into state control, India is building digital public infrastructure where users own their data and get paid for AI training, and UAE is converting oil reserves into compute power to sell AI services globally.

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