The Charges for the Super Bowl

The New England Patriots have a 3% chance of winning the Super Bowl this year. That would be 4% if not for the VIG, which gives them an 11% chance in next three years. But every year they don't win means it's less likely that they're going to have a monster team one day. So take 0.965 to the 10th power and you get 86.7%. You know what? I think you're still going to be well above 50%.