Miscommunication of Probabilities and Its Consequences

Nate and Maria take a quick break from the World Series of Poker to tape a live episode at the Aspen Ideas Festival. They give some updates on a scandal at the World Series, then discuss Zohran Mamdani’s recent win in New York City’s Democratic primary, and what it might mean for elections moving forward. They also discuss the language we use to convey probability, and why talking about it can be so difficult. Plus, they answer some audience questions.

Further Reading:

From Adam Kucharski’s newsletter, Understanding the unseen: Possibly a serious possibility

From Silver Bulletin: Zohran delivered the Democratic establishment the thrashing it deserved

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