Evaluating Economic Indicators and Their Impact on the Bond Market

In this episode, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders discuss several of the latest economic indicators, focusing on inflation, employment, and the housing market. They analyze the current state of the S&P 500®, bond yields, and the implications of global interest rate cuts. The discussion highlights the importance of understanding market rotations and the impact of economic data on investment strategies.

Next, Kathy speaks with Collin Martin, director and fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. Kathy and Collin discuss the current state of the fixed income markets, focusing on the outlook for interest rates, corporate credit spreads, issuance dynamics, preferred securities, TIPS, and strategies for building a bond portfolio. They explore the resilience of the economy, the implications of Fed policy, and the importance of understanding various investment vehicles in the context of market volatility and economic uncertainty.

You can read more about the Basel III regulations Collin mentions here.

Lastly, Kathy and Liz Ann review the schedule for next week's economic data and indicators—and tell you which ones really matter.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

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Important Disclosures

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.  

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.  

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.  

All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.  

Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are guaranteed by the US Government, but inflation-protected bond funds do not provide such a guarantee.

Preferred securities are a type of hybrid investment that share characteristics of both stock and bonds. They are often callable, meaning the issuing company may redeem the security at a certain price after a certain date. Such call features, and the timing of a call, may affect the security’s yield. Preferred securities generally have lower credit ratings and a lower claim to assets than the issuer's individual bonds. Like bonds, prices of preferred securities tend to move inversely with interest rates, so their prices may fall during periods of rising interest rates. Investment value will fluctuate, and preferred securities, when sold before maturity, may be worth more or less than original cost. Preferred securities are subject to various other risks including changes in interest rates and credit quality, default risks, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, deferral risk, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.

Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

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