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Prediction Market FAQ

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

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Prediction Markets - What Are They?

If the stock market grows 4% per year, I should expect any money invested in the stock market to multiply by 20 times in 2100. Realistically, this means prediction markets won't work well for far future events. These might be a better match for forecasted tournaments or some other structure. What are some clever uses for prediction markets? Here's a non-exhaustive list.

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