The Moving Average Is Not a Moving Average

The relevant piece here is sample size. If you can get a phenomenon that has a large sample size, it tends to be more closely centered around whatever the actual underlying trend is. And then before we move on, I just want to dispel something that took me months, if not years to learn moving average is not a moving average in the moving average sense of the word. So it's not a rolling window where you take the average. It is an auto regressive component of the differences.