The Fed's Projection of Economic Growth

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TGllyM

That the market gave up -500 points in fifteen minutes at the end of the day yesterday but then rebounded +500 points this morning is, to me, validation of my theory regarding yesterday: that it was a closing speculative trade. Fundamentally, the facts on the table (where they are known) are not really subject to much debate.

So an interesting thing happened on the way home from processing the Fed’s announcement yesterday … Math. The Fed is now projecting a +0.4% real GDP growth rate this year, yet a +3.2% growth rate is currently showing in the Atlanta Fed model for Q1 (others have it at +2% and others at +2.5%). Regardless of whether or not Q1 comes in at +2% or +3% (and this always refers to an annualized quarterly number), you can’t get from there to +0.4% on the year without … wait for it … a recession.

But the Fed is also showing a projection of no rate cuts this year. And Powell is talking about a credit crunch coming and the financial markets doing their tightening for them. And the first two years of the yield curve are entirely inverted. And the futures market expectation for the 3-month t-bill rate (currently 4.75%) is that in 18 months, it will be below 3.5%. So what should we make of this?

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com