The Best Fourth Down Decisions Aren't Worth a Win

I would want to match things like for example I could just take you know fourth and X and you fill in X we could look at those opportunities where they went for it and they didn't go for it however I don't think that's enough I think you'd have to control for a lot of other factors. The hardest part here I think is the outcome part because we only have these big fat rare occurrences which is game wins so can I just jump in let me just jump into this? So Eric that's that I hear all of that that makes a ton of sense to me but the hardest part here  is the outcome part as well, he says.