Navigating the Midterm Landscape

Chuck Todd begins by highlighting potential Trump cabinet members that are likely to be resigned or fired in the near future. He rails against the damage RFK Jr. is inflicting on public heath, but predicts Pete Hegseth or Pam Bondi will exit first for making Trump “look bad”. He also recounts recent polling show Democratic voters want drastic action from their lawmakers and points out the 2028 presidential hopefuls that have made stops in early primary states.

Then, Chuck is joined by Nathan Gonzalez, editor and publisher of “Inside Elections”, to analyze the evolving political landscape ahead of the 2026 midterms. They dive into potential Senate retirements, the challenges facing Trump nominees like Pete Hegseth and RFK Jr., and how issues like tariffs and aggressive deportations could impact Republican prospects. The conversation explores whether we'll see more competitive Democratic primaries as the party searches for a new identity, and examines key races from New York and New Jersey that could foreshadow national trends.

The discussion also covers some fascinating political developments, including the IRS decision to allow churches to endorse candidates and what that means for the intersection of politics and religion. Gonzalez and Todd speculate about Elon Musk's potential influence on third-party movements, analyze gubernatorial races in states like Ohio and Michigan, and consider how "Biden baggage" might affect Democratic candidates. They wrap up with some college sports talk, debating conference realignment, misleading conference names and the upcoming Pac-12 season.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment about Pakistan, RFK Jr. and a potential rebranding opportunity for Democratic Socialists.

Timeline: 

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Introduction

01:00 Which Trump cabinet secretary will be next to leave?

02:30 Record measles outbreak under RFK Jr.

03:45 RFK Jr could hurt Republican candidates in midterms

05:00 Measles outbreak should be a bigger story

06:30 RFK Jr lied to Senator Bill Cassidy

08:30 Kennedy is doing tremendous damage to public health

09:45 Hegseth and Bondi are doing most damage to Trump politically

11:00 Outsiders get eaten alive at the Pentagon

12:15 Joni Ernst is the most likely Hegseth replacement

13:00 MAGA media has turned on Pam Bondi over Epstein

15:00 Howard Lutnick’s media appearances have stopped

15:45 Scott Bessent could get the fed chair job

17:00 Will the Senate pick a fight with Trump over fed chair?

18:30 Bondi most likely to go in the short term

19:30 Democratic voters want drastic action from their representatives

21:30 Trump’s re-election is creating a reactionary revolution on the left

24:00 The Big Beautiful Bill could be a huge political loser for MAGA

26:30 Democrats will distance themselves from Biden

28:30 New poll mapping voter preferences was revealing

30:15 The “invisible primary” for 2028 presidential election

31:15 2028 Democratic hopefuls are visiting early primary states

33:15 Ruben Gallego is getting lots of buzz 

35:30 IRS won’t revoke churches’ tax-exempt status for practicing politics

37:00 Nathan Gonzalez joins the Chuck ToddCast! 

39:00 Anticipating any senate retirements prior to 2026? 

41:00 Joni Ernst most likely to replace Hegseth if he's fired? 

42:30 Hegseth and RFK Jr are causing problems for Trump 

44:00 What Kennedy is doing at HHS will be a big midterm issue 

46:30 The tariff bomb will hit hard, but hasn't hit yet 

49:30 Did Biden's team set up the bad debate on purpose? 

51:45 Will NY and NJ elections foreshadow the midterms? 

53:45 How Mikie Sherrill handles Zohran Mamdani will be telling 

56:00 Will we see more competitive Democratic primaries? 

57:30 Democrats are wrestling with finding a new identity 

58:15 IRS will allow candidate endorsements by churches 

1:00:00 Could other entities claim to be churches for political purposes? 

1:01:45 Politics and religion have always mixed, will be more overt now 

1:03:15 The IRS decision will be bad for churches 

1:05:45 How heavy will "Biden baggage" be in 2026? 

1:08:00 Will Biden ties sink Pete Buttigieg? 

1:09:30 Is a Ramaswamy victory a done deal in Ohio? 

1:10:30 Where should Musk target his money to boost third parties? 

1:13:45 Musk should support both the Libertarian and Forward parties 

1:16:15 Musk hasn't indicated what he's FOR 

1:17:30 Alaska and Maine could be ripe for third party success 

1:19:30 Dan Osborne's viability in Nebraska? 

1:21:30 Rural states could be in play due to tariff turmoil 

1:22:30 Dynamics of Michigan Democratic governor primary 

1:25:30 Are Mike Duggan's Biden ties a liability? 

1:26:30 What under the radar issues could bubble up in 2026? 

1:27:45 Aggressive deportations will hurt Republicans 

1:29:15 Republican voters care about immigration nationally, not locally 

1:30:45 Bigger sin for college conferences: misleading name or geography? 

1:33:00 What to expect in the Pac-12 this season? 

1:36:45 Oregon State and Washington State should be playing with big schools 

1:38:30 Where to find Nathan's work

1:40:00 Chuck's thoughts on interview with Nathan Gonzalez 

1:41:40 Ask Chuck 1:42:00 Why isn't the U.S. government tougher on Pakistan? 

1:46:45 Why don't leftist Democrats frame their politics as pre-Reagan Democrat? 

1:51:15 Why is anti-vax sentiment only framed as an RFK Jr. issue? 

1:55:00 James Wood in the home run derby a bright spot for Nats fans