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5 - Infra-Bayesianism with Vanessa Kosoy

AXRP - the AI X-risk Research Podcast

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The Problem With Non Realistic Probability

Theorems like the merging of opinions theory show that your predictions about what will happen will converge to what actually happens. But if your environment does not ke, if your prior is mispecified, then there are no guarantees about what your basionind reasoning will give you. There are sometimes guarantees you can prove if you assume te environment is ergotic, but that's also a very strong assumption that does not hold in realistic cases.

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