Three futures for HR in ten years

In this episode, Stacia and Dani sit down once again with Cole Napper, author of “People Analytics: Using Data-Driven HR and Gen AI as a Business Asset.” A year after his first appearance, Cole returns with bold insights about the seismic changes facing HR and people analytics, and why now is the time to rethink how we define value in the workplace.

Cole argues that the future of HR depends on shedding its transactional skin and embracing a new, data-driven paradigm. He discusses why traditional models like Dave Ulrich’s COE framework won’t survive the decade, how organizations can “discorrelate” from market forces by proving business value, and why fear, not technology, is the biggest obstacle to transformation. 

With sharp humor and evidence from his own research, Cole makes the case for a redefined HR: one that blends human strategy with AI-powered intelligence to drive growth, not just efficiency.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
[00:00] Building a new HR paradigm in the Gen AI era.
[06:00] Why people analytics hit its “identity crisis” after 2022.
[12:00] How to prove HR’s business value beyond metrics.
[19:00] The decline of the Ulrich HR model and what replaces it.
[24:00] The future of AI-driven workforce transformation.
[33:00] The tension between the HR and finance worldviews.
[46:00] Why data infrastructure is suddenly “sexy” again.
[52:00] Three possible futures for HR in the next decade.

Building a New Paradigm for People Analytics
Cole’s new book calls for a reset in how organizations use data, not as an isolated reporting function but as a business accelerator. He reveals how people analytics can move from being “scorekeepers” to strategic partners by tackling the questions behind the questions: Why is it happening? What should we do about it? His message is clear, analytics must tie directly to revenue, cost, or risk reduction, or it’s just a hobby.

The End of HR as We Know It
Cole predicts that the Ulrich model, the long-standing HR framework of COEs, service centers, and HRBPs, won’t survive the coming decade. As generative AI automates much of HR’s transactional work, only the strategic and human elements will remain. He and the hosts debate what should stay human and what can be delegated to machines, exploring the fine line between technological efficiency and organizational soul.

AI, Accountability, and the Future of Work
Cole cautions that while AI’s potential is vast, it cannot replace human accountability. Drawing a parallel with the evolution of chess, he argues that AI will transform HR’s “game,” not erase it. The goal isn’t to align around AI as a tool, but to use it to unlock entirely new possibilities in how we work, learn, and grow.

Infrastructure, Not Illusion
For all the hype, Cole reminds leaders that the foundation of AI success lies in data infrastructure, “the least sexy but most essential lever.” Without it, organizations risk failure in the next wave of transformation. Investing in data quality, architecture, and scalability today determines who thrives, or disappears, tomorrow.

Resources & People Mentioned

• People Analytics: Using Data-Driven HR and Gen AI as a Business Asset by Cole Napper

Connect with Cole Napper

• Cole on LinkedIn

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• Website: Red Thread Research
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