IPO predictions for AI and platforms

Michael Mignano, Partner at $30B VC firm Lightspeed, and the co-founder of Anchor, a podcast creation, hosting, and monetization platform acquired by Spotify in 2019, joins Sourcery to discuss the next era of creation & technology investing.

In this episode, Michael shares how his background building consumer media products informs the way he invests today, with a focus on AI and creativity-driven companies. We discuss his portfolio, including investments in xAI, Neuralink, Suno, Pika, Granola, and Macroscope, and how he evaluates AI businesses when incumbents can move quickly.

The conversation digs into what makes AI companies defensible today, from retention-driven moats to why ARR metrics can be misleading. Michael shares his reaction to the Sora launch and avatars, and what these changes could mean for creators. 

We also touch on evolving early-stage check sizes, lessons from Spotify’s Daniel Ek, his work on Obo, and thoughts on potential IPO candidates.

Michael Mignano: https://x.com/mignano

Molly O’Shea: ⁠https://x.com/MollySOShea⁠

Sourcery: ⁠https://x.com/sourceryvc

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𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒

(00:00) Michael Mignano

(01:06) Anchor’s pivot & podcasting’s breakout moment

(02:32) Spotify’s Talk org: podcasts, video, and live audio

(02:55) Why synchronous (live) formats fail online

(03:27) Joining Lightspeed & portfolio overview

(03:47) Investment thesis: creativity, product taste, founders

(05:24) How xAI & Neuralink fit Lightspeed’s strategy

(06:56) Is OpenAI “Sherlocking” ?

(08:37) Granola & retention as the real AI moat

(09:52) Why ARR can be FAKE in AI startups

(11:20) Seed vs Series A check sizes & AI valuation premiums

(19:34) Sora, avatars, recommendation media, & creator economics

(33:37) Oboe: AI education & human intelligence

(40:01) Lessons from Daniel Ek & Spotify’s long-term strategy

(42:55) IPO predictions & what comes next