The leading indicators are made up of 12 sub-indicators. The S&P 500, the credit index, the yield curve and consumer expectations as measured by the conference board have all been negative for 15 months. If we don't head into recession, meaning declining activity, it will be quite a big setback for this measure of leading indicators. This will get the FET to change its spots and the market which had taken such a serious tumble last year has discounted a lot of this.

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