CTV Fragmentation Failed to Ignite

Media is not shifting, it’s revealing which predictions actually mapped the year and which trends will define what comes next.

Welcome back to The Media Odyssey Podcast! In this special “Predictions Wrapped” episode, Evan Shapiro and Marion Ranchet revisit the forecasts they made a year ago and grade themselves on accuracy. They discuss YouTube’s explosive rise on CTV, Netflix’s unexpected innovation, creator-driven cultural dominance, the slow grind of CTV fragmentation and more. They break down the bets they nailed and the ones that missed the mark.

The conversation also surfaces the biggest forces shaping 2025: global broadcaster collaboration, a reshaped M&A landscape, a creator economy that has become central to mainstream media, and an AI boom that is both overhyped and quietly transformative behind the scenes.

Key Takeaways: 

1. YouTube’s Transformation Into the No. 1 TV Channel Was the Prediction of the Year

Evan’s call that YouTube would finally be recognized as true television proved spot-on: it became the #1 TV channel in the U.S. for months, dominated industry conversation, and strengthened global partnerships.  Lean-back YouTube viewing is now mainstream.

2. Netflix Proved More Open and Innovative Than Expected

Marion’s prediction that Netflix needed to evolve beyond its walled garden came true through major deals with TF1, Spotify, creators, and new M&A exploration. The company is clearly signaling a shift toward becoming a broader entertainment hub.

3. 2025 Really Was the Year of the Creator

Creator-led programming defined industry conversations everywhere from MIPCOM to Cannes Lions. Big media invested heavily in creator partnerships and creators like MrBeast built full-blown media empires. Creators are sitting at the center of the cultural and business agenda.

4. Some Big Bets Didn’t Materialize

Marion’s expectation of an aggressive, high-stakes fight among CTV operating systems didn’t happen. Instead, the space stagnated: incremental partnerships, UI improvements, and slow expansion replaced the “vicious competition” anticipated.

5. AI Was Both Boringly Effective and Wildly Overhyped

Evan’s call that AI would be simultaneously underwhelming and inflated proved true. The real impact was invisible backend optimization at major tech companies, while valuations, hype cycles, and consumer expectations outpaced real-world product maturity.

6. Broadcasters in Europe Became More Collaborative Than Ever

Marion’s prediction about unprecedented cooperation among European broadcasters wasn’t just correct, it overperformed. With TF1 and Netflix, FranceTV and Prime Video, Sky and ITV, and MFE’s acquisitions, 2025 became a landmark year for cross-border, cross-platform partnerships.

7. M&A Defined the Year and Will Shape 2025 Even More

Evan’s expectation of massive consolidation was validated by Paramount and Skydance, NBCUniversal and Omnicom Media Group, MFE, the WBD bidding saga, and political forces now influencing dealmaking. The industry’s next chapter will be written through mergers rather than standalone growth.

8. The Job Market Was Worse Than Expected and Still Getting Tougher

The darkest but most accurate prediction: 2025 saw more media layoffs by October than all of 2024. With more M&A ahead, layoffs are expected to continue, making reinvention, networking, and career resilience essential for 2025.

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Check out the full Substacks grading all of last year's predictions:

Evan Shapiro - https://eshap.substack.com/p/youtube-is-tv 

Marion Ranchet - https://www.streamingmadeeasy.com/p/my-2025-predictions-the-mbappe-report

The Media Odyssey Podcast - https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-media-odyssey-podcast

• (00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview
• (01:07) - Grading Predictions: YouTube's Dominance on TV
• (04:16) - Grading Predictions: Netflix's Innovations
• (09:32) - Grading Predictions: The Rise of the Creator Economy
• (19:16) - Grading Predictions: AI's Impact and Future
• (25:14) - Grading Predictions: European Broadcasters' Collaborations
• (30:10) - Media Landscape Predictions
• (30:49) - Mergers and Acquisitions Impact
• (31:57) - Corporate America and Government Influence
• (33:11) - European Media Market Shifts
• (34:53) - Streaming Services and Consolidation
• (40:36) - Ad-Supported Streaming Future
• (45:15) - Job Market Challenges in Media
• (46:33) - Advice for Facing Job Loss
• (53:28) - Reflecting on Predictions and Future Plans