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The Negativety Bias in Long Termism
I think there's a more optimistic story to be told here. If you look at the kind of huristic literature, it's all so extraordinary how oftenike people can get incredibly complicated things right very quickly. They avoid doing very complicated analysis, but still get a pretty good enough answer very fast. I don't buy that for a bunch of diffrent reasons, including, like, i don't think we understand all that well, necessarily, how to have those effects. We're obviously not taking the stuff seriously enough by any means. And one of the best parts of Od's book is just the looking at some of the pandemic threats that come in. It's either one or five