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The Credit Crunch is Here
The Macro Trading Floor
The Fed's Next Sequential Move: When?
It's not a matter of if the Fed will cut next as the next sort of sequential move, it is a matter of when. And given current market pricing, they obviously need to move the needle during the second half of the year for markets not to be surprised on the hawkish side relative to the pricing. So what could make them cut from here? One of the things I took note of, and it actually holds both for the Fed and when we discuss the ECB in a second, is that they take notice of the current trends in loan office surveys. If we get this small increase, the dotted line in the credit survey towards tighter standards, then I feel very certain saying that we
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