Projecting Big Ten Standing and Season Floor

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The 2025-26 Men's Basketball Preview, Part 1

2 hours and 26 minutes

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1. The Backcourt

Starts at 1:00

Out: Tre Donaldson, In: Elliot Cadeau, who is a much better creator, and that's what this team needs. Cadeau and the general UNC'ness of North Carolina are hard to separate but he was a five-star who plays hot and should benefit from not having to fight for usage with RJ Davis. Defensively his size puts a cap on what he can do but he gets after it: more Xavier Simpson than Eli Brooks.

LJ Cason is the backup point, we guess, though he may defer to Gayle as the on-ball player in those sets just because Cason is more of an off-ball threat than Roddy. Cason was a three-star because he was coming in unready, but could take that huge jump. This year is the freshman Jordan Poole year, not the sophomore Jordan Poole year, IE frustratingly forgivable.

Gayle isn't going to shoot 9% in the Big Ten again, but he's what he is at this point: a guy who can get to the rim and create fouls/hit his free throws. We kinda want him coming off the bench since he can fill in for a lot of what any given starter leaves, but isn't a great fit with the other projected starting four.

The other wild card is their new five-star. Trey McKenney lost 20 pounds in the offseason so he might not as much of a burly 2/3 as he seemed at OLSM. He's still Gayle at this point in his career, though with some big point upside. Not a one-and-done but should be ready by Tournament time.

[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP] 

2. Hot Takes, Wings and Frontcourt

Starts at 32:15

Starting at the three again will be Nimari Burnett, who is Nimari: a usage soak who is there to end good possessions not start them. He began to show a bit of creation late last season but that only got him from 90% points assisted to 84%. He is very good at what he does, and unlikely to do more. His backups are extra guards, and Winters Grady, who should be Just a Shooter at this stage, and more down the road. Oscar Goodman arrived midseason last year, but he's supposed to need another year of development. Patrick Liburd is the kind of guy we wish was 2 years older right now.

At the four is Yaxel Lendeborg, the #1 player in the portal, who is going to be a cross between Danny Wolf and Johni Broome, though not better than either of them. He is very strong and impossible to stop once he has you off your feet, but he's coming from an offense where he had to be the alpha creator every play and he's better as the second option. Can he guard up to three? Probably in the Big Ten; there was some distance at the Combine between him and Wolf in the agility drills, but Yaxel came out like Johni: agile enough to be among the who can play the four in the NBA.

Backup to Yax is Will Tschetter, the rarest bird in college basketball these days as a five-year player who stuck around despite the likelihood of less playing time than last year. They were working on making him a shooter on the move. He has to be hidden away defensively, but this lineup has plenty of defenders to do that.

Frontcourt is two guys instead of 1.5 now. We are obsessed with the upside of Aday Mara, who is 7'3" with impossible length. He would have had the highest block rate in the country by some distance if he played enough to qualify; he didn't because he got sick (Mono?) but when he returned they had him playing 21 mpg and UCLA got much, much better. Then he got benched. Sometimes he plays soft—was that a sick thing, a Cronin thing? He's also got a soft touch and a good feel for passing. May be as good as Yaxel if he hits his ceiling. Mara's platoonmate, and the probable "starter," is Morez Johnson from Illinois, a crazy rebounder with great ups and shot-blocking ability. Offensively he's a finisher. Defensively there's some hope he can be switchable. Going to make it very hard to go inside and give Michigan an edge from the five that they haven't had since...?

3. How It All Fits

Starts at 1:11:34

Can they play the bigs together? Matt D says the NBA is going back to three forwards, and Michigan's best attribute is they're Old North Carolina, where they're just going to out-size everybody. That's doable if they can get Mara to be the player we think he could be, since he can create and so can Yaxel, and you can get away with blow-bys when you have a guy like Mara who blocks shots without leaving the floor. Speaking of floor, this team at worst looks like a four-seed, with considerable upside if a) Mara can play more and maintain his numbers, b) Cadeau cuts down on turnovers, c) Gayle finds his shooting, d) Cason blows up, or e) McKenney blows up. Think they can cut down on turnovers from last year because Wolf just had a bunch that were unforced, and because instead of forcing everything to the rim they can shoot bad twos and rebound them. They also just have more room to pass to.

4. Around the Big Ten with Jamie Mac

Starts at 2:02:19

Oregon 30, Penn State 24
Penn State could do nothing on offense until the 4th Q when they had went on an Oregon-is-exhausted march, then hit a great PA shot. The INT that ended it was that pyramid formation Lanning loves. Frames punted from the plus-36. 

Ohio State 24, Washington 6
Went about how you might expect a team whose OL/DL are their issues would go against OSU, IE they got six points out of three red zone trips and then it was 17-6 in the 4th Q and they had to go for it on 4th down. OSU did a great job containing the QB run.

Indiana 20, Iowa 15
I know that touchdown; that's the Anthony Carter play!  Iowa had chances to win this but lost their QB near the end and also went Cover Zero one too many times. 

USC 32, Illinois 34
This felt like two good teams going at it, though USC was short on guys in the secondary and played bend-don't-break until they either broke or Illinois pulled out a Philly Special. Coulda been a blowout but Illinois fumbled in the endzone twice.

Minnesota 31, Rutgers 28
Rutgers hits their program high when they have to play a Big Ten West schedule. Good solid quarterbacking until Athan Kaliakmanis had to face pressure, which is like Pedro Serrano trying to hit a curve.

Northwestern 17, UCLA 14
Down 17-0 to Northwestern was probably UCLA's best shot at winning a Big Ten game this year.

MUSIC:

• "Surefire"—Wilderado   
• "See You Again"—Tyler the Creator
• "I Believe She's Lying"—Jon Brion
• “Across 110th Street”—JJ Johnson and his Orchestra