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#37 Prophet, Time Series & Causal Inference, with Sean Taylor

Learning Bayesian Statistics

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Forecasting - What Are You Doing Right Now?

We're working on forecasting, but what i would call counter factual forecasting. We intervene in our market places in a way that affects the forecast outcomes. And so we need some notion of causality. I think some of the work that we're doing there might end at being able to be open sorceed some point. Another big area is experimentation. One of the hardest problems with a market place like lifts is knowing when the change that you made to the market place is better than the old way that you were doing things. It's been very exciting to start to think about a world where it doesn't take two weeks or four weeks to decide if you made a good product change.

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